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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:27) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-L.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model