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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 83

Carolina Panthers 17 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 10-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to NYG 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 39 for 10 yards (49-J.Rhattigan).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.57 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 83, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 41, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP