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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 24

New York Giants 14 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(:09) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +1.54 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model