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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 35

Carolina Panthers 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-E.Pineiro 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.37 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model