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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 79

New York Jets 6 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to ARI 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model