Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 61

New York Jets 6 – Arizona Cardinals 31

(1:03) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to ARI 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-41-M.McCrary-Ball.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.86 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model