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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 65

New York Jets 6 – Arizona Cardinals 31

What Actually Happened

(10:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 41 for 6 yards (24-S.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.84 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model