4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(4:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 5-D.London to DEN 35 for 26 yards (29-J.McMillian).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.85 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 20, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model