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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 78

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Denver Broncos 28

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to DEN 32, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.88 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model