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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 27

Denver Broncos 28 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.51 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model