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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Denver Broncos 38

What Actually Happened

(7:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 12-K.Hodge to DEN 38 for 4 yards (21-R.Moss, 42-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.39 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model