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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 87

Denver Broncos 38 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to ATL 40, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 26-A.Williams to 50 for 10 yards (26-D.Key).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.30 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 87, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 45, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP