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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 31 for 13 yards (42-J.Pierre). PENALTY on BAL-28-S.Kane, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.96 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model