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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 11-J.Stout punts 37 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.77 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.12 EP
KICK -1.88 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP