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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.46 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model