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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 8-C.Waitman punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model