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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 14

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model