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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 9

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:59) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 9, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP