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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 32

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.26 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model