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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 8-R.Rehkow punts 38 yards to LAC 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.99 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model