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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 42

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 5-T.Higgins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.01 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model