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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.18 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model