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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to CIN 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.73 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model