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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(12:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to LV 40 for 5 yards (18-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.28 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model