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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 13

Miami Dolphins 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model