4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 4

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(:48) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 4, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP