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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(3:21) (Shotgun) 22-A.Mattison up the middle to LV 45 for 6 yards (4-K.Kohou).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.95 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model