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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 1

Miami Dolphins 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.84 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model