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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.58 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model