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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.63 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model