4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 37

Seattle Seahawks 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard to SF 37 for no gain (27-J.Brown; 53-D.Winters).

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.12 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model