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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 42

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.25 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -1.59 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP