4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 33

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model