Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 65

Washington Commanders 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(9:57) 10-T.Way punts 39 yards to PHI 26, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.67 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model