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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to WAS 24, Center-49-R.Lovato. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 27 for 3 yards (21-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.06 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP