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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 46

Washington Commanders 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 10-T.Way punts 36 yards to PHI 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model