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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 27

Washington Commanders 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 47-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.72 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model