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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.57 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP