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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to WAS 42, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-81-G.Calcaterra.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.64 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model