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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 17

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 38-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model