Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 93

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(4:46) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to SEA 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.24 EP
58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 93, worth -5.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model