Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(:50) 12-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to SEA 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-32-J.Blount.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.86 EP
47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 74, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model