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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant at SEA 31. 8-C.Bryant for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-21-D.Witherspoon, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.42 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model