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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to ARI 9, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.37 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model