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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 32

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ** Injury Update: ARI-98-R.Lopez has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.01 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 42, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model