Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(14:12) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model