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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 27

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.40 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP