4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 22-D.Henry left guard to LAC 34 for 27 yards (0-D.Henley; 29-T.Still).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.95 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model