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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Baltimore Ravens 30

What Actually Happened

(2:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey to BAL 44 for 18 yards (29-A.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.03 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -2.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model