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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 20 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to LAC 13, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.43 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model